Quantity vs. Quality in Sports Gambling - A Simple Example
By Corey Bachmeier - SportsGamblersEdge.com
We've all heard a handicapper or sports gambler boast of their
ability to win at a 60% or better clip. Is it possible to win at
that percentage over a short period of time? Absolutely. If
someone is able to maintain that winning percentage over the
course of years - enjoy your riches, and I wish you all the luck
in the world. Now the truth. It's not going to happen - forget
it, 60% is nearly impossible over any substantial length of
time. 55%, maybe, but anyone who claims a 60% win rate over
multiple sports and seasons is simply lying - or they are
betting a very small number of games. Don't give up yet however.
Below I will show that winning 54 out of every 100 games (54%)
can turn a nice profit.
The example below will examine the attainable profits from
different amounts a games wagered and different winning
percentages of those games. For the sake of argument someone
could claim that they have hit 60% winners betting on sports the
past three years, for example. But if they only bet 10 games a
year - 30 total over the three year span - and they win 18 of
those, I guess they have the right to claim they can handicap
sports at a 60% win rate. Technically correct, but a very weak
claim.
Wager size $110
Betting $110 to win $100
60% winning percentage over 30 games
18 winners = $1800
12 losers = $1320
Profit = $480
For someone who claims to pick 60% winners over the past three
years, and is betting roughly $100 a game - a $480 profit does
not look all that impressive. So much for that impressive 60%
winning percentage.
Let us now look at a different example. A guy claims that he
has hit a conservative 54% of his games over the past 3 years
(52.38% is the break even point). However, over the course of
that time he bets roughly 3 games per day on all major sports.
His total games bet would be 3285 over that time span. Let's
examine his numbers using the same bet size as the so called 60%
bettor.
Wager size $110
Betting $110 to win $100
54% winning percentage over 3285 games
1774 winners = $177400
1511 losers = $166210
Profit = $11,190
You can see from these simple examples that it is important to
not only look at winning percentages, but also the number of
games wagered and the bet size to realistically analyze
potential profits. Be sure to take this into account when
analyzing your bets, or when you hear outrageous claims of 60%
or better winning percentage over a long period of time.
Good luck with your wagers, and I wish you the best of luck this
year!
About the author:
Corey Bachmeier is the owner of
SportsGamblersEdge.com.
This new site launched in January of 2006 and provides quality
free sports gambling content, Premium selections and packages
from Corey Bachmeier, offshore sports book recommendations,
sports betting radio, and more - EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO BE A
WINNER! Corey can be contacted via his website should you have
further questions or comments.
